An Emergency Evacuation Planning Model Using the Universally Quickest Flow

In recent years, catastrophic disasters by massive earthquakes are increasing in the world, and disaster management is required more than ever. In the case of disasters such as tsunami from which the slight delay of evacuation deprives of life. In this article, we formalize the emergency evacuation planning model for the evacuation from tsunami etc. based on the idea of the universally quickest flow. We will show that there does not always exist a universally quickest flow when the capacity constraint of refuges is taken into account. Therefore, we will propose an alternative criterion that approximates a universally quickest flow, and presents an algorithm for finding an optimal flow for this criterion. Numerical experiments of the evacuation aimed at a local city in Japan are carried out where tsunami damages are assumed to occur when a big earthquake occurs in the ocean nearby.